Tejal Commodity
New Delhi
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
TIME: 9:07 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
Bank of Japan meeting will be the key for the Japan Yen. The
moves in the currency market is just pre central bank meeting moves. After
today’s bank of Japan meeting, there is the Reserve bank of India meeting and
FOMC press conference tomorrow. Bank of England meeting on Thursday is expected
to raise interest rates. Cable will sink if bank of England postpones interest
rate hikes. US July private ADP employment numbers tomorrow will also affect
the US dollar before FOMC. There are no central bank key meetings in August after Thursday. Traders will start taking positions for mid-September from Friday (after the release of US July nonfarm payrolls). In August global currency traders will be based on fundamentals. Sustainability of current growth in every nation will dictate the currency values. There can be big period of consolidation after the initial rise or fall in August. Growth and inflation will be the key themes for August. Trade wars and its impact on growth will start trickling at a snail’s pace from August.
Fall in Chinese manufacturing growth can result in US dollar Index trading with a firm bias.
India
Rupee will weaken against the US dollar,
if the RBI does not raise interest rates tomorrow. Market expectation is for an
interest rate hike. I believe that an interest rate hike can be postponed.
August to November is a period where prices of surviving essentials zooms. The
government should control the price of fruits, vegetables, petrol and diesel
first and then focus on interest rate hikes. Any continued increase in price of
surviving essentials will dent the Indian economic growth. I have never believed
in the state given statistical numbers of inflation and growth as they are just
tools to fool the masses. Every small, tiny and medium sized enterprise and low
salaried workers know whether there is real growth or not. Large corporates
never worry as they have access to cheap banking finance.
The next one week till 7th August is the key for the
rupee from a medium term trend perspective. The recent consolidation phase will
be broken and a new range will be formed. Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 61.8700):
One Support: 61.5850
One Resistance: 62.0350
o
100
day moving average at 61.4800 is the key support.
o
Yen/inr
will crash if it falls below 61.4500.
o
There
will be another wave of rise over 62.0350 to 62.8450.
o
Trend
is bullish.
Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP
1.1707): One Support: 1.1642
One Resistance: 1.1738
o
There
will be another wave of rise over 1.1738 to 1.1838.
o
Key
support is at 1.1642.
o
Bearish
trend or sell off will be there below 1.1642.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd
CMP 1.3124): One Support: 1.3078
One Resistance: 1.3195
o
100
week moving average at 1.3080 is the key long term support.
o
Sell
off will be there only below 1.3078 today.
o
Cable
can rise to 1.3195 and 1.3253 today as long as it trades over 1.3047-1.3078
zone.
US dollar/Japanese Yen
(usd/jpy CMP 110.99): One Support: 110.77
One Resistance: 111.47
o
Yen
can fall to 110.06 and 109.57 by tomorrow as long as it trades below 111.47.
o
Yen
needs to trade over 111.47 to rise further.
o
50
day moving average at 110.81 is the initial support.
TO VIEW FULL REPORT U NEED TO PAY/SUBCRIBE
FAQ
Why Do I ask exporters
and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some
day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium
term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make
the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using
technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take
the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if
export or import price near cost.
Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
No comments:
Post a Comment