DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
World
Trump-Juncker trade deal should be bullish for the euro. European central bank press conference today will set the direction for the currency. There are more short positions in euro than longs. Next week is more crucial with the bank of japan meeting, FOMC and US July nonfarm payrolls. Trend in currency markets can change anytime from Tuesday. In my view, the US dollar Index has formed a medium term top and looks headed for 92 and 89.60 in August.
CURRENCY SPOT TECHNICAL LEVELS
| ||||
EURO/USD
|
GBP/USD
|
USD/JPY
|
USD/IDR
| |
CMP
|
1.1734
|
1.3202
|
110.80
|
14444.80
|
S5
|
1.1560
|
1.2992
|
109.96
|
14,324.70
|
S4
|
1.1603
|
1.3042
|
110.18
|
14,359.88
|
S3
|
1.1649
|
1.3096
|
110.41
|
14,398.00
|
S2
|
1.1670
|
1.3120
|
110.52
|
14,415.30
|
S1
|
1.1696
|
1.3150
|
110.65
|
14,436.70
|
R1
|
1.1780
|
1.3248
|
111.07
|
14,505.90
|
R2
|
1.1806
|
1.3278
|
111.20
|
14,527.30
|
R3
|
1.1827
|
1.3303
|
111.31
|
14,544.60
|
R4
|
1.1873
|
1.3356
|
111.54
|
14,582.72
|
R5
|
1.1916
|
1.3406
|
111.76
|
14,617.90
|
ALL PRICES VERSUS THE US DOLLARS ABOVE
| ||||
CMP = Current Market Price
| ||||
ABOVE TECHNICALS ARE ONLY FOR REFERENCE
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India
Securities and exchange board of India’s proposal to increase trade timings of futures and options in the Indian stock markets to 11:55pm from current 3:30pm will result in higher FII inflows into Indian stock markets from October. Daily more regulations are being made to ensure better investor protections and trader protection. Global investors will continue to increase their investment in Indian stock market. The rot in the state run banking system has already been factored in by the stock markets. Regulatory news will be the key for the rupee as well. If crude oil prices continue to rise globally then downside risk will be limited.
US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 68.7025):
One Support: 68.6025
One Resistance: 68.8700
o There will be another wave of sell off below 68.6025 to 68.3425.
o Rupee needs to trade over 68.8700 to be in bullish zone.
Forward cover strategy for exporters: Use any 30-40 paisa rise to cover receivables till Monday.
Forward cover strategy for importers: Use a stop loss over 69.1200 for near term payables.
CURRENCY SPOT TECHNICAL LEVELS
| ||||
USD/INR JUNE
|
EURO/INR JUNE
|
GBP/INR JUNE
|
JPY/INR JUNE
| |
CMP
|
68.6950
|
80.6125
|
90.7075
|
62.0100
|
S5
|
68.2450
|
79.9950
|
89.5250
|
61.0700
|
S4
|
68.3425
|
80.1576
|
89.8544
|
61.2956
|
S3
|
68.4691
|
80.3338
|
90.2113
|
61.5400
|
S2
|
68.6063
|
80.4137
|
90.3732
|
61.6509
|
S1
|
68.6685
|
80.5126
|
90.5736
|
61.7882
|
R1
|
68.8650
|
80.8324
|
91.2214
|
62.2318
|
R2
|
68.9945
|
80.9313
|
91.4218
|
62.3691
|
R3
|
69.0715
|
81.0113
|
91.5838
|
62.4800
|
R4
|
69.1338
|
81.1874
|
91.9406
|
62.7244
|
R5
|
69.2709
|
81.3500
|
92.2700
|
62.9500
|
ALL PRICES VERSUS THE INDIAN RUPEE ABOVE
| ||||
CMP = Current Market Price
| ||||
ABOVE TECHNICALS ARE ONLY FOR REFERENCE
| ||||
Euro/Indian Rupee (Euro/inr CMP 80.5900):
One Support: 80.3325
One Resistance: 80.8325
o Euro/inr can rise to 81.3500 by Monday as long as it trades over 80.1575.
o Sell off will be there only below 80.1575 till tomorrow.
Forward cover strategy for exporters: Use a stop loss below 79.79 for short term receivables.
Forward cover strategy for importers: Cover on any 30-40 paisa fall for payables till next week.
UK Pound/Indian Rupee (Gbp/inr CMP 90.7000):
One Support: 90.5725
One Resistance: 91.2225
o Gbp/inr can rise to 91.5850 by Monday as long as it trades over 90.2125.
o Sellers will be there below 90.2125 till Monday.
Forward cover strategy for exporters: Use a stop loss below 90.2125 for receivables till Monday.
Forward cover strategy for importers: Cover on any 30-40 paisa fall for payables till tomorrow.
Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 62.0000):
One Support: 61.7875
One Resistance: 62.4800
o Yen can rise to 62.4800 as long as it trades over 61.7875.
o Today sellers will be there below 61.7875.
Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1732):
One Support: 1.1696
One Resistance: 1.1780
o Euro/usd needs to trade over 1.1696 till tomorrow to rise to 1.1827.
o It will crash only if it trades below 1.1696 after the ECB press conference.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd CMP 1.3200):
One Support: 1.3150
One Resistance: 1.3248
o Cable can rise to 1.3304 by tomorrow as long as it trade over 1.3120.
o Sell off will be there only below 1.3120 today.
US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 110.81):
One Support: 110.41
One Resistance: 111.07
o Yen can fall to 110.41 and 109.96 as long as it trades below 111.40.
o Look for signs of trend reversal after the ECB press conference.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah (usd/idr CMP 14440.30):
One Support: 14405.00
One Resistance: 14475.30
o Support is between 14360-14390-14405. There will be another wave of sell off below this zone to 14305-14255 and 13960.
o Rupiah needs to trade over 14475 today to be in intraday bullish zone.
FAQ
Why Do I ask exporters and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if export or import price near cost.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.
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